WARNING - By their nature, text files cannot include scanned images and tables. The process of converting documents to text only, can cause formatting changes and misinterpretation of the contents can sometimes result. Wherever possible you should refer to the pdf version of this document. CAIRNGORMS NATIONAL PARK AUTHORITY Paper 3 APPENDIX 1 06/10/06 CAIRNGORMS NATIONAL PARK AUTHORITY FOR INFORMATION Title: Housing Policy Progress APPENDIX 1 Population & Household Projections Prepared by: Gavin Miles, Planning Officer Population and Household Projections Introduction 1. The CNPA has commissioned a number of pieces of work relating to population projections, household projections and Housing requirements in the National Park and has developed the ability to do this work itself in the future. This report summarises the various research reports and provides some interpretation of them in the context of the housing requirements of the Cairngorms National Park. 2. It is important to make a distinction between household projections (which are an estimate of the number of households likely to be formed within or move into the area) and the housing requirement (which reflects numbers of houses required to be built either in order to meet the household projections or to influence housing availability and population structure). 3. The numbers of houses that would be required to be built in order to house different numbers of households are not speculated at in this report. One way of assessing the housing requirement in the past would have been to assume that a proportion of new housing would remain vacant or become second homes and to add a corresponding proportion of houses to the housing requirement. So for example, if this proportion was 20% of 1000 increase in households, then 200 additional units might be added to make a housing requirement of 1200. However, given our understanding of the inability of many National Park households to access the housing market and the need to target building towards those households, a more appropriate way for the Cairngorms Local Plan to assess the housing requirement is likely to focus on how much open market housing is needed in order to fund the development of the housing for the types of households that the CNP needs to support in order to ensure sustainable communities. 4. Finally, the projections in this report illustrate that they should be used to inform policy choices and not to dictate or define a course of action. They are all attempts to show what could happen under different circumstances but they are not guaranteed to be realised even if those circumstance come to bear. The housing requirement that will be set out through the Local Plan will use population and household projections, assessments of housing need, the long term aims of the Park Plan, other partners’ priorities, as well as the environmental and financial constraints of the real world in order to produce a housing requirement that meets the Park’s needs. University of Manchester Projections for CNP 5. The population projections provided by the University of Manchester’s Centre for Cencus Survey and Research (CCSR)1 showed that, based on the current population structure and past trends of migration, the population of the National Park could be expected to rise by about 7% (or 1000 people) between 2001 and 2016 (shown in table 1). This population rise would be met largely by continued net in-migration, particularly of people in the 40-60 age group. The projections assumed that net in-migration to the Park would remain similar to that experienced over the period 2001-2004 (a period where the Badenoch and Strathspey part of the Park saw high levels of in- migration). Table 1. CCSR Population Projections for CNP (not available in full text format) 6. The projections also showed that the age structure of the population was likely to change dramatically over the period. The number of people in the 65+ age group would increase to 27% of the population in 2016 from 20% in 2004 (from around 3190 to 4560 people). The number of children (0-15 years old) in the Park could be expected to fall from around 17% of the population in 2004 to around 12% of the population (a total fall of about 750, with a drop of more than 400 school-age children). 7. The population projections are used as the basis for household projections. The household projections show that over time, and in part because of the ageing population, a significant increase in the number of smaller adult only 1 Appendix 1. CCSR, University of Manchseter, December 2005, Population and Household Projections for the Cairngorms National Park Authority households is expected. A corresponding decrease in the number of households with more that two adults or 2+ adults with children is expected over the same period as younger adults leave the Park area. The projection shows a net increase of around 950 households from around the present to 2016, shown in table 2. Table 2. Manchester University Household Projections for CNP (not available in full text format) Highland Council Projections for Badenoch & Strathspey 8. Highland Council have produced population and household projections for Badenoch and Strathspey, which holds nearly three quarters of the National Park’s population. Although the methodologies used for making the projections are comparable, Highland Council’s baseline projections are based on the Highland Wellbeing Alliance’s assumptions over long term in- migration to the Highlands. For Badenoch and Strathspey, this assumes that in-migration has been through a high period and will now decline to 2008, from when it will remain at a lower rate (assumed to be +65 people per year). This means that the Highland Council population projections for Badenoch and Strathspey lead to a smaller proportionate increase in the population than that predicted by CCSR (Table 3). However, both projections see the significant fall in numbers of children and increases in the numbers of retired people. Table 3. Extract from Highland Council Policy and Information Briefing Note 12. Council Area Population Projections 2004-2024. May 2006 (not availble in full text format) 9. Due to the differing assumptions about migration made by CCSR and Highland Council, the household projections for Badenoch and Strathspey made by Highland Council are significantly different to the National Park figures. The differences in % changes in household numbers between the two projections are shown in table 4 below. Table 4. % changes in household numbers between Manchester University and Highland Council projections (2001-2016) (not available in full text format) 10. Highland Council have also looked at different scenarios of population change within Badenoch and Strathspey where varying levels of in migration to the area can be seen to have different effects of the numbers of young people and working age groups. The scenarios increase in migration with the same age/gender structure that has been experienced in the past, and show that the losses in overall numbers of young people could be reduced by increased in-migration but that the overall population structure would retain the aging characteristics. 11. For example, if net in-migration increased to twice the rate predicted by the Highland Wellbeing Alliance (from 65-128 per year in B&S), the percentage fall in numbers of children would be reduced by half over the period 20042024, and there would be an increase of around 970 households between 2004 and 2016. At the Highland Wellbeing Alliance rate of net immigration the increase in B&S households would be 612 over the same period, and assuming rates at the same level as the CCSR projection the B&S increase would be 766 households. Implications for the Cairngorms National Park 12. To supplement the work described above, the CNPA has produced two other population projections (Tables 6 & 7 below). Table 5 shows the CCSR population projection for the CNP area while the Tables 6 & 7 show firstly the potential effect of a lower rate of in-migration such as the Highland Wellbeing Alliance long term baseline, and secondly, the effect of reduced out migration by younger people in the CNP. All three projections show substantial changes in the population over time, and the aging population is a characteristic common to all. 13. The third projection could be seen as the most desirable outcome for the CNP in order to maintain sustainable communities within the Park. However, in order to reduce the numbers of young people leaving the Park, more opportunities for study, training, skilled and well paid work, and possibly other social changes would be needed in addition to better access to good quality housing. Simply providing housing for the numbers and types of people the Park needs would not be enough to ensure that those people either stayed or were attracted to the area. Table 5. CCSR Baseline Population Projection for CNP (using average in migration 2001-2004) (not available in full text format) Table 6. CNPA Population Projection using CCSR method but with in migration reduced to reflect Highland Wellbeing Alliance long term assumptions (not available in full text format) Table 7. CNPA Population Projection using CCSR method but with in migration reduced to reflect Highland Wellbeing Alliance long term assumptions and a 25% reduction in out-migration of those under 40 years old (not available in full text format)