2021CBBQ1Final

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Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK KEY 106 PAR­TI­CIPANTS Q1 2021 VS LAST YEAR (LY) High­er* Same Lower Cairngorms Busi­ness Part­ner­ship Cairngorms Busi­ness Baro­met­er | Quarter 1 (Janu­ary to March) | 2021 DASH­BOARD SUM­MARY As the coun­try remained under nation­al lock­down dur­ing the first three months of 2021, busi­nesses con­tin­ued to high­light down­ward trends as they recor­ded sig­ni­fic­ant reduc­tions in cus­tom­ers and turnover com­pared to recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Moreover, for the first time in the baro­met­er, but to be expec­ted giv­en the lock­down, all accom­mod­a­tion pro­viders recor­ded low occu­pancy of less than 50% dur­ing the quarter.

How­ever, with the Scot­tish gov­ern­ment set­ting out the plan to ease lock­down restric­tions and reopen the eco­nomy, busi­nesses expressed sig­ni­fic­antly improved levels of optim­ism for their per­form­ance in the next 12 months. Des­pite provid­ing only slightly pos­it­ive feed­back over­all on the plan, this was the first time since the out­break of Cov­id-19 that an over­all increase in per­form­ance was expected.

Busi­nesses also demon­strated sig­ni­fic­antly high­er con­fid­ence in the short, medi­um and long term com­pared to recent quar­ters. Indeed, long-term con­fid­ence sur­passed the pre-pan­dem­ic level recor­ded in Q1 2019. Fur­ther­more, over­all con­fid­ence to sur­vive the crisis was rated at 4.19 out of 5 which was at the highest level since the pan­dem­ic began.

In addi­tion, invest­ment in staff train­ing, mar­ket­ing and infra­struc­ture is expec­ted to grow in the year ahead and, encour­agingly, the res­ults imply that busi­nesses are more likely to invest in these areas com­pared to the Q1 and Over­all averages.

Cairngorms Nation­al Park con­tin­ues to play an import­ant role in influ­en­cing and attract­ing busi­ness. The over­all levels of influ­ence of the park on attract­ing first time and repeat cus­tom­ers and influ­en­cing prof­it­ab­il­ity were at their highest levels since the baro­met­er began in 2009. Each quarter, the Cairngorms Busi­ness Baro­met­er seeks feed­back from busi­ness oper­at­ors across the Cairngorms Nation­al Park (CNP) on a range of aspects includ­ing ongo­ing per­form­ance and con­fid­ence in the future which allows for a quarterly assess­ment of the ​‘health’ of tour­ism in the Park area.

This report was pro­duced by STR for the Cairngorms Busi­ness Part­ner­ship Email: tanderson@​str.​com

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BUSI­NESS LEVELS

TURNOVER £ CUSTOMERS

Last 3 Next 12 Last 3 Next 12 months months months months Q1 21 ‑79% 33% ‑79% 31% Q1 20 ‑65% ‑90% ‑66% ‑86% QTR AVG ‑21% 10% ‑24% 9% Net busi­ness level changes in last 3 months and next 12 months com­pared to last year and quarter AVG. CAIRNGORMS BUSI­NESS PART­NER­SHIP COM­MENT­ARY Busi­ness per­form­ance was, as expec­ted, dis­astrous in Q1 with the coun­try in Nation­al Lock­down and 85% of respond­ents report­ing a decrease in turnover and cus­tom­er num­bers reflect­ing the dom­in­ant role tour­ism, hos­pit­al­ity and retail busi­nesses play in the eco­nomy of the Nation­al Park.

The res­ults show a return of busi­ness con­fid­ence which sup­ports the gen­er­al level of optim­ism as we once again wel­come back vis­it­ors and cus­tom­ers. The abil­ity to attract staff remains one of the most sig­ni­fic­ant bar­ri­ers busi­nesses face as they look to recov­er par­tic­u­larly as 48% of busi­nesses are look­ing to increase staff­ing levels in the com­ing months.

Short term con­fid­ence has returned to close to the pre-pan­dem­ic aver­age for the first time in over 12 months whilst medi­um and long term con­fid­ence returned to levels above their his­tor­ic pre-Cov­id average.

A great­er per­cent­age of busi­nesses than ever before stated that our status as a Nation­al Park had a high impact in attract­ing first time and repeat vis­it­ors. This will con­tin­ue to be an import­ant ele­ment of our mar­ket­ing as we look to extend the sea­son and build to wel­com­ing back our import­ant inter­na­tion­al vis­it­ors. BUSI­NESS CON­FID­ENCE NEXT X MONTHS:

3 12 24 Q1 21 5.50 6.34 6.90 Q1 20 1.64 3.53 6.10 QTR AVG 5.66 5.94 6.25

Busi­ness con­fid­ence over short, medi­um and long term com­pared to last year and quarter AVG. Rat­ing score (1 to 10).

BAR­RI­ERS TO GROWTH INVEST­MENT ORI­GIN OF VISITORS

Q1 21 Q1 20 QTR AVG STAFF TRAINING

AVG LAST 3 MONTHS ‑7% ‑35% 8%

Q1 21 6.44 5.57 5.51 5.07 NEXT 12 MONTHS 33% ‑38% 22% SCOT­LAND ENG­LAND OVER­SEAS Q1 20 6.89 5.77 7.55 5.82 MAR­KET­ING Q1 21 76% 19% 2% QTR AVG 6.28 5.46 5.90 5.50 LAST 3 MONTHS 1% ‑26% 17% Q1 20 54% 29% 12% NEXT 12 MONTHS 48% ‑25% 29% QTR AVG 49% 30% 11% INFRA­STRUC­TURE Bur­eau­cracy, Staff Levels, Tour­ism Trends Over­all aver­age and indi­vidu­al bar­ri­er to growth score for top 3 LAST 3 MONTHS 37% ‑14% 26% Mix of cus­tom­ers dur­ing quarter com­pared to last year and quarter factors com­pared to last year and quarter AVG. NEXT 12 MONTHS 40% ‑34% 30% AVG. *Where bar­ri­er scores are high­er than last year, this is a neg­at­ive res­ult and there­fore high­lighted in red. Net invest­ment changes in last 3 months and in next 12 months com­pared to LY and quarter aver­age Area

Sec­tor 7% 20% Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters 5% 479 7% 4% 5% 4% 5% 18% 24% 21% 24% 22% Ongo­ing Aver­age ■ Angus Glens 46 %% 22% 22% ■ High­land Perth­shire ■ Glen­liv­et 68% 68% 70% 68% 69% 75% 67% 67% Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age The sample was com­prised as fol­lows this quarter: Badenoch & Strath­spey busi­nesses (68%), Roy­al Deeside (24%), Glen­liv­et (5%), and High­land Perth­shire (4%). ■ Roy­al Deeside ■Badenoch & Strath­spey Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 9% 5% 8% 8% 7% ■ Oth­er 10% 7% 13% 6% 5% 5% 5% 6% 7% 12% 15% 9% 13% 14% 14% 12% 13% ■Non-tour­ism busi­ness 19% 17% 18% 16% 13% 13% 13% 15% ■ Attrac­tion Food / Bever­age / 58% 54% 55% 57% 60% 58% 60% 58% Retail ■ Activ­it­ies Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► In terms of busi­ness sec­tor, the sample was made up as fol­lows: Accom­mod­a­tion pro­vider (57%), Activ­ity oper­at­or (16%), Food/​Beverage / Retail busi­ness (13%), Attrac­tion (5%), Non-tour­ism busi­ness (8%) and Oth­er busi­ness (1%). ■Accom­mod­a­tion 2 Origin

Q2 2020 Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 4% 3% 7% 12% 15% 11% 17% 19% 23% 8% 6% 7% 7% ■ Over­seas 35% 29% 31% 30% 29% ■ Rest of UK ■ Eng­land 76% 72% 56% 54% 52% 49% ■ Scot­land 47% Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age The mix of cus­tom­ers in the Park area dur­ing the quarter was as fol­lows: Scot­land cus­tom­ers (76% of all cus­tom­ers), vis­it­ors from Eng­land (19%), vis­it­ors from the rest of the UK (3%) and over­seas vis­it­ors (2%). ► As in pre­vi­ous quar­ters, the Scot­tish mar­ket con­tin­ued to account for the largest share of vis­it­ors (76%). Their rep­res­ent­a­tion was sig­ni­fic­antly high­er com­pared to recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. In con­trast, a sig­ni­fic­ant decrease was evid­ent among vis­it­ors from Eng­land (19%) and over­seas (2%) com­pared to recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Ori­gin — Top Source Mar­kets Eng­land and Overseas

Q2 2020 Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters 79% 72% 67% Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters 60% 60% 61% 57% 58% 50% Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 ■North of Eng­land ■Lon­don / South East Ongo­ing Aver­age 61% 58% 55% 51% Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► The most com­mon seg­ments from Eng­land were vis­it­ors from the North of Eng­land and Lon­don / South East (60% of busi­nesses who engaged with vis­it­ors from Eng­land traded with cus­tom­ers from these areas). Albeit below the pre­vi­ous two quar­ters, the pro­por­tion of vis­it­ors from the North of Eng­land was above Q1 2020 and on par with Q1 2019 and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Moreover, the pro­por­tion of vis­it­ors from Lon­don / South East was high­er com­pared to Q1 2019 and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. ► The pro­por­tion of over­seas vis­it­ors was extremely low in Q1 2021. There­fore, ana­lys­is of over­seas vis­it­ors is not avail­able this quarter. Due to Cov­id-19, the Cairngorms Nation­al Park area saw an unpre­ced­en­ted num­ber of busi­nesses tem­por­ar­ily close their doors start­ing in March of 2020. There­fore for the Q2 2020 sur­vey, STR and CBP made the decision to tem­por­ar­ily exclude these ques­tions from the research. 3 Busi­ness Levels No. Of Cus­tom­ers: Last 3 months and next 12 months

Q2 2020 Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 8% 6% 11% 6% 2% 24% 24% 5% 9% 30% 27% 26% 27% 11% 40% 35% 43% 43% 16% 14% 8% 59% ■ Increase 25% 22% 24% 86% 92% 28% 85% 23% ■ No change 29% 77% 60% 62% 65% 13% 53% 51% ■ Decrease 41% 49% 28% 32% 34% 28% 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► There was an over­all decrease in cus­tom­ers as more busi­nesses decreased their cus­tom­er num­bers than increased (85% versus 6%). Cus­tom­er num­ber per­form­ance was well below recent Q1s as well as the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. How­ever, cus­tom­er num­bers per­form­ance was on par with the levels recor­ded in the pre­vi­ous quarter. ► For the first time since the out­break of Cov­id-19, an over­all increase in cus­tom­ers was expec­ted in the year ahead as sig­ni­fic­antly more busi­nesses (59%) expec­ted to increase cus­tom­er num­bers than decrease (28%) from their cur­rent level in the next 12 months. This con­sti­tuted a sig­ni­fic­antly more pos­it­ive out­look com­pared to recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Busi­ness Levels Turnover: Last 3 months and next 12 months

Q2 2020 Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter 6% 6% 6% 11% 4% 23% 25% 28% 23% 10% 12% 14% 11% 11% 61% 16% Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 29% 29% 37% 42% 44% 44% ■ Increase 22% 21% 22% 94% ■ No change 88% 85% 29% 22% 26% 76% 63% 64% 66% 11% 56% ■ Decrease 50% 49% 41% 34% 28% 28% 29% 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► There was an over­all reduc­tion in turnover this quarter as more busi­nesses decreased their turnover than increased (85% versus 6%). On par with the pre­vi­ous quarter, this drop was much lar­ger com­pared to recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. For the first item since the out­break of Cov­id-19, an over­all increase in turnover was expec­ted in the year ahead as sig­ni­fic­antly more busi­nesses (61%) expec­ted to increase their turnover than decrease (28%) from the cur­rent level in the next 12 months. These res­ults con­sti­tuted a much more pos­it­ive out­look com­pared to recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Due to Cov­id-19, the Cairngorms Nation­al Park area saw an unpre­ced­en­ted num­ber of busi­nesses tem­por­ar­ily close their doors start­ing in March of 2020. There­fore for the Q2 2020 sur­vey, STR and CBP made the decision to tem­por­ar­ily exclude these ques­tions from the research. 4 Busi­ness Levels Accom­mod­a­tion Occu­pancy: Last 3 months and next 12 months Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 21% 19% 6% 6% 5% 8% 8% 23% 5% 8% 5% 11% 9% 25% 31% 13% 26% 30% 27% 46% 34% 44% 14% 32% 100% 44% 88% 86% 83% 84% 79% 69% 33% 20% 38% ■ High ■ Medi­um 47% 45% 34% 39% 50% 41% 35% ■Low 25% * 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► For the first time in the his­tory of the baro­met­er all accom­mod­a­tion pro­viders (100%) recor­ded low occu­pancy of less than 50% dur­ing the quarter. These res­ults were well below any pre­vi­ously recor­ded levels. Influ­ences 45% of accom­mod­a­tion pro­viders expec­ted to achieve low occu­pancy of less than 50% for the year ahead whilst 23% expec­ted to achieve high occu­pancy of 70% or above. Des­pite demon­strat­ing stronger expect­a­tions regard­ing future per­form­ance com­pared to the pre­vi­ous quarter and the same quarter last year, accom­mod­a­tion pro­viders were less optim­ist­ic com­pared to Q1 2019 and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Influ­ence of CNP — Attract­ing First time & Repeat Cus­tom­ers Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 46% 43% 49% 61% 57% 55% 52% 47% 56% 54% 63% 59% 66% 63% 72% 70% ■ High 25% 30% ■ Medi­um 18% 23% 30% 22% 21% 22% 26% 22% ■ Low 22% 20% 22% 20% 13% 24% 17% 28% 25% 28% 18% 16% 14% 18% 9% 8% 12% 11% 15% 14% 18% 21% 1^st time repeat 1^st time repeat 1^st time repeat 1^st time repeat 1^st time repeat 1^st time repeat 1^st time repeat 1^st time repeat Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► 70% of busi­nesses stated that the Park had a high level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 7 to 10 out of 10) in attract­ing first time cus­tom­ers whilst 8% stated a low level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 1 to 4 out of 10). The over­all level of influ­ence in attract­ing first time cus­tom­ers was at the highest ever levels since the baro­met­er began in 2009. ► 59% of busi­nesses stated that the Park had a high level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 7 to 10 out of 10) in attract­ing repeat cus­tom­ers whilst 12% stated a low level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 1 to 4 out of 10). The over­all level of influ­ence in attract­ing repeat cus­tom­ers increased to a record high level. Due to Cov­id-19, the Cairngorms Nation­al Park area saw an unpre­ced­en­ted num­ber of busi­nesses tem­por­ar­ily close their doors start­ing in March of 2020. There­fore for the Q2 2020 sur­vey, STR and CBP made the decision to tem­por­ar­ily exclude this ques­tion from the research. 5 Influ­ences Influ­ence of CNP — On Busi­ness Oper­a­tions & Prof­it­ab­il­ity Bar­ri­ers Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 33% 29% 27% 37% 33% 30% 29% 30% 27% 24% 29% 25% 39% 38% 37% 49% 16% 25% 25% 28% 20% 26% 25% 28% 28% 26% 28% 20% ■ High 28% 29% 26% ■ Medi­um 23% ■ Low 49% 39% 42% 42% 45% 34% 29% 31% 32% 37% 38% 37% 41% 28% 31% 21% Oper­a­tions Profit Oper­a­tions Profit Oper­a­tions Profit Oper­a­tions Profit Oper­a­tions Profit Oper­a­tions Profit Oper­a­tions Profit Oper­a­tions Profit Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► 39% of busi­nesses stated that the Park had a high level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 7 to 10 out of 10) on their busi­ness oper­a­tions whilst 28% stated it had a low level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 1 to 4 out of 10). The over­all level of influ­ence on busi­ness oper­a­tions was above recent quar­ters, recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. ► 49% of busi­nesses stated that the Park had a high level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 7 to 10 out of 10) on their prof­it­ab­il­ity whilst 21% stated a low level of influ­ence (attrib­ut­ing a rat­ing score from 1 to 4 out of 10). The over­all level of influ­ence on prof­it­ab­il­ity was at the highest ever levels since the baro­met­er began in 2009. 7.50 6.50 5.50 4.50 3.50 5.20 2.50 Q2 2020 Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters 5.36 Q3 2020 5.29 Q4 2020 Latest Quarter 5.07 Q1 2021 5.82 Q1 2020 Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age Aver­age Bar­ri­er Score Bur­eau­cracy Weath­er Sup­pli­er Costs Tour­ism Trends Staff Levels Staff Costs 5.31 5.50 5.44 Cred­it Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age The aver­age bar­ri­er to growth score this quarter was 5.07 out of 10 which was below recent quar­ters, recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all Aver­ages. Bur­eau­cracy (6.44), staff levels (5.57) and tour­ism trends (5.51) were per­ceived to be the three most sig­ni­fic­ant bar­ri­ers to growth. The bar­ri­er which recor­ded the steep­est decrease from last quarter was tour­ism trends going down from 7.04 in Q4 2020 to 5.51 in Q1 2021. This bar­ri­er also saw the steep­est decrease from Q1 2020. As expec­ted, chal­lenges and con­cerns relat­ing to the Cov­id-19 out­break were also cited as prom­in­ent bar­ri­ers to growth dur­ing the quarter, although they are not eval­u­ated in the above ana­lys­is. 6 Busi­ness Con­fid­ence Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 6.36 1.00 Q2 2020 5.67 Q3 2020 5.41 Q4 2020 6.62 Q1 2021 4.82 Q1 2020 6.33 Q1 2019 6.10 6.16 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age Short term con­fid­ence (next 3 months) was rated at its highest level since the Cov­id-19 out­break (5.50 out of 10). This was only slightly below the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Medi­um term con­fid­ence (next 12 months) was also rated at its highest level since the Cov­id-19 out­break (6.34 out of 10). Fur­ther­more, it was above the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Long term con­fid­ence (next 24 months) sur­passed its pre-pan­dem­ic level being rated at 6.90. It was above all recent quar­ters, recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. As a res­ult, the Aver­age Con­fid­ence Score — factor­ing in the medi­um and long term view — was 6.62 which was above recent quar­ters, recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Sup­port Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 4.96 3.00 Q2 2020 4.83 Q3 2020 4.71 Q4 2020 Latest Quarter Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters 5.28 Q1 2021 4.44 Q1 2020 4.94 Q1 2019 Ongo­ing Aver­age Aver­age Con­fid­ence Score Next 3 Months Next 12 Months Next 24 Months Aver­age Sup­port Score CBP/DMO CNPA Vis­it Scot­land ‑Coun­cil NatureScot Forest & Land Scot­land 4.66 4.62 ‑Enter­prise Org. Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age The over­all level of sup­port / con­tri­bu­tion provided by organ­isa­tions was rated at 5.28 which was high­er than recent quar­ters, recent Q1s and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. The con­tri­bu­tion / sup­port provided by CBP/DMO (7.12) was rated most pos­it­ively. Whilst the organ­isa­tion record­ing the least pos­it­ive per­cep­tion was Forest & Land Scot­land (3.70). The organ­isa­tion which recor­ded the largest pos­it­ive change in per­cep­tion from Q4 2020 was Vis­it Scot­land as scores increased from 4.97 in Q4 2020 to 6.00 in Q1 2021. The sup­port provided by Enter­prise Org. noted the highest increase com­pared to the same quarter last year (3.03 in Q1 2020 com­pared to 4.52 in Q1 2021). The con­tri­bu­tion / sup­port provided by all organ­isa­tions was rated more pos­it­ively com­pared to the pre­vi­ous quarter and Q1 2020. 7 8 Invest­ment — Staff Train­ing Staff Train­ing: Last 3 months and next 12 months Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Ongo­ing Aver­age 14% 12% 9% 7% Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter 15% 27% 28% 33% 43% 51% 37% 42% 40% 51% 54% 59% 63% 69% ■ Decrease ■ No change 48% 37% ■ Increase 48% 27% 31% 34% 33% 21% 22% 22% 8% 13% 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age ► 28% of busi­nesses registered a decrease in staff train­ing invest­ment whilst 21% recor­ded an increase. Over­all, as a res­ult, there was a net decrease in staff train­ing invest­ment. Whilst the over­all net staff train­ing invest­ment amount remained neg­at­ive, the decrease was less pro­nounced com­pared to Q1 2020. ► Staff train­ing invest­ment is expec­ted to increase for 48% of busi­nesses in the year ahead whilst 15% expec­ted it to decrease. These res­ults imply that busi­nesses are more likely to invest in staff train­ing com­pared to Q1 and Q3 2020 and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Invest­ment — Mar­ket­ing Mar­ket­ing: Last 3 months and next 12 months Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Latest Quarter 13% 21% 31% 32% 26% 49% 53% 36% 38% 35% 43% 31% 28% 19% 61% 33% 23% 28% Ongo­ing Aver­age 22% 17% 18% 12% 38% 42% 39% 44% ■ Decrease ■ No change ■ Increase 46% 45% 39% 37% 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months Q2 2020 Q4 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 ► Over­all, there was no change in mar­ket­ing invest­ment as nearly the same pro­por­tion of busi­nesses indic­ated an increase or decrease in this type of invest­ment (33% and 32%, respect­ively). Albeit above Q1 2020, these res­ults imply that there was a lower level of mar­ket­ing invest­ment com­pared to the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. They also show the same intent to invest in mar­ket­ing as in Q3 2020. Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Q1 Aver­age Over­all Aver­age Mar­ket­ing invest­ment is expec­ted to increase for 61% of busi­nesses in the year ahead com­pared to 13% who expec­ted a decrease. These res­ults imply that busi­nesses are sig­ni­fic­antly more likely to invest in mar­ket­ing com­pared to Q1 and Q3 2020 and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. **Unfor­tu­nately, due to a tech­nic­al error no invest­ment data is avail­able for Q1 2019. 8 Invest­ment — Infra­struc­ture Infra­struc­ture: Last 3 months and next 12 months Pre­vi­ous Recent Quar­ters Pre­vi­ous Com­par­able Quar­ters Latest Quarter 9% 18% 31% 29% 44% 27% 41% 56% 36% 39% 33% 32% 26% 22% 55% 49% 30% 22% Ongo­ing Aver­age 16% 14% 12% 11% 43% 42% 44% 48% ■ Decrease ■ No change ■ Increase 42% 44% 46% 40% Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q1 Aver­age ► An over­all increase in build­ings and infra­struc­ture invest­ment was recor­ded as 55% of busi­nesses increased their invest­ment in this aspect whilst 18% decreased invest­ment. The over­all increase in 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months 3 Months 12 Months Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q1 2019 Over­all Aver­age infra­struc­ture invest­ment was above Q1 and Q3 2020 and the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. ► Infra­struc­ture invest­ment was expec­ted to grow in the year ahead by 49% of busi­nesses whilst 9% expec­ted to decrease invest­ment in this aspect. These res­ults imply that busi­nesses are more likely to invest in infra­struc­ture com­pared to Q1 and Q3 2020 as well as the Q1 and Over­all aver­ages. Quarterly Top­ic­al Ques­tions: Q: How has the crisis impacted on your employ­ees and staff­ing levels? Staff on / have been on fur­lough Q: Con­sid­er­ing your cur­rent employ­ees and staff­ing levels, in the com­ing months are you likely to… 62% 60% 47% 45% Decreased staff hours 53% 32% 28% Staff are / were work­ing from home 26% 25% Q1 2021 31% 48% 17% 21% ■ Q1 2021 Staff have been made redund­ant 32% 21% ■ Q4 2020 3% Increased staff hours 4% 17% ■ Q3 2020 ■3% Staff con­sulta­tion (being / to be under­taken) 4% 6% ■Decrease staff num­bers ■Neither decrease nor increase staff num­bers ■Increase staff num­bers ■Don’t know / Not sure 5% Oth­er 4% 4% 14% No impact 9% 17% ► The vast major­ity (86%) of busi­nesses that employ staff claimed that the crisis has had an impact on their employ­ees and staff­ing levels. ► Busi­nesses were most likely to fur­lough staff (62%), reduce staff hours (45%) or have staff work­ing from home (28%). They were sig­ni­fic­antly less likely to make staff redund­ant com­pared to the pre­vi­ous quarter. ► Nearly a half of busi­nesses (48%) stated that they are likely to increase staff num­bers in the com­ing months. Only 3% of busi­nesses are likely to reduce their staff num­bers in the com­ing months. 9 10 Quarterly Top­ic­al Ques­tions: Q: How con­fid­ent are you of your busi­ness sur­viv­ing the crisis? Q2 2020 6% 5% 24% 27% 35% 3% 3.82 Q3 2020 6% 9% 16% 35% Q4 2020 5% 10% 27% Q1 2021 3% 13% 36% 23% 12% 3.67 30% 19% 8% 3.53 43% ■1=Not at all confident2 3 4 5=Very con­fid­ent Not sure 3% 4.19 Q: Please rate the over­all level of sup­port that gov­ern­ments have provided to your busi­ness dur­ing the crisis. Scot­tish Gov­ern­ment UK Gov­ern­ment Q1 2021 17% 11% 22% 6% 30% 14% 3.24 Q4 2020 22% 15% 21% 14% 12% 15% 2.75 Q1 2021 15% 13% 22% 17% 28% 5% 3