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SMALL WORLD CONSULTING

A greenhouse gas emissions assessment and target scenario for the Cairngorms National Park

A report by Small World Consulting Ltd

October 2022 Small World Consulting Ltd Lancaster Environment Centre Gordon Manley Building Lancaster University, Lancaster LA1 4YQ info@ sw-consulting.co.uk 01524 510272 www.sw-consulting.co.uk

Executive summary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………5
Background………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5
This report……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….5
Limitations and uncertainties……………………………………………………………………………………………………..7
Results………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………7
Key highlights………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….7
Targets scenario……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….8
1. Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12
1. Policy drivers………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..13
  - 2.1. Climate change policy………………………………………………………………………………………………………….13
  - 2.2. Health impacts of air pollution…………………………………………………………………………………………….15
  - 2.3. Climate-driven impacts in the UK………………………………………………………………………………………..15
  - 2.4. Real world action and behaviour change……………………………………………………………………………..16
  - 2.5. Policy implications for local planning authorities………………………………………………………………….17
1. Cairngorms National Park: demographic profile and key statistics………………………………………………18
  - 3.1. People and key characteristics…………………………………………………………………………………………….19
  - 3.2. Geography and landscape……………………………………………………………………………………………………21
  - 3.3. Consumption and spending characteristics…………………………………………………………………………22
1. GHG reporting conventions and methods………………………………………………………………………………….23
1. Cairngorms National Park: Consumption-based GHG emissions……………………………………………….27
  - 5.1. Results overview…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..27
  - 5.2. Residents’ and visitors’ GHG footprint components…………………………………………………………….30
  - 5.2.1. Food…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….30
  - 5.2.2. Homes and accommodation away from home……………………………………………………………31
  - 5.2.3. Travel……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………32
  - 5.2.4. Everything else…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..34
  - 5.2.5. Comparison of residents’ GHG emissions with UK national average by category……36
  - 5.3. Industry assessment…………………………………………………………………………………………………………36
  - 5.3.1. Scope of industry assessment………………………………………………………………………………………37
  - 5.3.2. Industry sector analysis……………………………………………………………………………………………….37
  - 5.3.3. Energy-only industry analysis………………………………………………………………………………………43
  - 5.3.4. Large emitters analysis……………………………………………………………………………………………….44
  - 5.3.5. Comparison of annual industry footprint with UK averages…………………………………….44
  - 5.4. Analysis of emissions from through-traffic and major roads………………………………………………..45
  - 5.5. Land use emissions…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….46
  - 5.6. Factors for consideration in land use target-setting…………………………………………………………….48
  - 5.6.1. Trees, woodlands and forestry……………………………………………………………………………………..48
  - 5.6.2. Local authority opportunities………………………………………………………………………………………49
  - 5.6.3. Peatlands and wetlands……………………………………………………………………………………………….49
  - 5.6.4. Agricultural landscape and food production……………………………………………………………..50
  - 5.6.5. UK timber production context…………………………………………………………………………………….51
1. A vision for a low-carbon National Park: GHG targets………………………………………………………………….54
  - 6.1. Scenario based on land use targets apportioned from the Sixth Carbon Budget…………….57
  - 6.2. Scenario based on land use targets from the new Partnership Plan………………………………….61
1. Conclusions and recommendations……………………………………………………………………………………………64
1. Acronyms………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..67
1. Glossary……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………68
1. Appendices…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..76
  - 10.1. Appendix: Scottish Policy Comparison to UK/ England……………………………………………………..76
  - 10.2. Appendix: National Park key statistics………………………………………………………………………………..78
  - 10.3. Appendix: Summary datasets used for carbon footprint and confidence levels………………79
  - 10.4. Appendix: Carbon footprint definitions and data sources………………………………………………….80
  - 10.5. Appendix: Residents GHG emissions………………………………………………………………………………….81
  - 10.6. Appendix: Visitors GHG emissions……………………………………………………………………………………..82
  - 10.7. Appendix. Industry footprint estimates……………………………………………………………………………83
  - 10.7.1. Appendix: SIC Codes (2007) summary and IDBR description………………………………………83
  - 10.7.2. Appendix: IDBR industry footprint………………………………………………………………………………84
  - 10.7.3. Appendix: IDBR vs GVA industry footprint estimates………………………………………………….85
  - 10.7.4. Appendix: Pollution inventory for large emitters……………………………………………………….86
  - 10.8. Appendix: Emissions from major roads…………………………………………………………………………….87
  - 10.9. Appendix: Methodology…………………………………………………………………………………………………..88
  - 10.9.1. Appendix: History of model development…………………………………………………………………..88
  - 10.9.2. Appendix: Model development for National Park family…………………………………………88
  - 10.9.3. Appendix: Outline of emissions estimation methodology…………………………………………89
  - 10.9.4. Appendix: Target setting rationale……………………………………………………………………………..90
  - 10.9.5. Appendix: Assumptions for land use sector……………………………………………………………….93
  - 10.9.6. Appendix: Land class categories for reporting nationally………………………………………..95
  - 10.9.7. Appendix: Changes in methodology for quantifying peatland GHG emissions………95
  - 10.9.8. Appendix: Target setting methodology for land use change…………………………………..98

Document control

National Park Carbon Footprint Model Development by: Dr Dmitry Yumashev, Mike Berners-Lee, Lorraine Ritchen-Stones, supported by representatives from UK National Parks and AONBs.

Technical Support: Matthew Bond MRes, Dr Tom Davies, Dr Hannah Wright, Dr Tom Higgs

Model results exported from: Version 10 on the 25^th May 2022

Report prepared by: Lorraine Ritchen-Stones MBA, MSc, Dr Dmitry Yumashev, Mike Berners-Lee, Dr Hannah Wright, Matthew Bond MRes, Dr Tom Davies, Dr Tom Higgs

Small World Consulting Ltd, +44 (0) 1524 510272, www.sw-consulting.co.uk

Proofreading: Jennifer Lyon, Lioness Translation

Results quality checked by: Mike Berners-Lee

Title: A greenhouse gas emissions assessment and target scenarios for the Cairngorms National Park

Report Version: 8

Status: Approved by Gavin Miles, Head of Strategic Planning, Cairngorms National Park Authority

Dated: 28^th October 2022

Approved by: Approved by Mike Berners-Lee

Expected Changes: Client feedback incorporated

Document Details

Reference: Cairngorms NP GHG Assessment Report v8 221028

Template: National Park Carbon Baseline Report Template Version 17.doc

No of pages: 105

Acknowledgements

We thank the Cairngorms National Park project team for their input and support.

Executive summary

Background

As the world wakes up to the climate and wider environmental emergency, rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable land management are becoming increasingly central to the local, national and international policy agendas.

Together, the UK’s 15 National Parks and 46 Areas of Outstanding National Beauty (AONBs) are home to over 1.5 million residents, attract approximately 250 million visitors per year, and account for around 18% of the UK’s land area. If these protected landscapes can become exemplars of low- carbon transition and environment-conscious land management, their national and international profiles could give them a level of influence that far outweighs the scale of their own emissions. The exciting and creative challenge for each protected landscape is to find a way to cut emissions in line with current science, and be leaders in land stewardship and planning authority while simultaneously creating better places for people to live, work and visit.

This report

This report, for the Cairngorms National Park, is one of a series of methodologically compatible reports produced for each UK National Park and Welsh AONB, with the Cotswolds AONB and Cannock Chase AONB in England also joining. They are designed to provide a robust and consistent evidence basis for climate action, matched to the unique characteristics and circumstances of each protected landscape, as we enter an era in which climate mitigation and sustainable land management become ever more central to all our lives, our work and to all policy decisions.

This report contains a consumption-based assessment of the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to residents and visitors, including travel to and from the landscape (Figure 1), and a set of Paris- aligned target recommendations for transitioning to a low-carbon economy.

Consumption-based emissions reporting differs from more traditional production-based reporting, such as that used by the UK in setting its 2050 net zero target. A production-based assessment would cover all the emissions that are directly produced within the boundary of the landscape whether by people or businesses or from land, plus those arising from production of the electricity used within the landscape. However, the consumption-based approach adopted here covers, in addition, all indirect emissions that are embodied in the goods and services consumed by residents and visitors within the landscape. In doing so, it better reflects the full climate impact of people’s lifestyles, and brings into focus for policymakers important areas of climate impact that a production-based assessment overlooks. The most important of these are the impact of food, of other purchased items (such as cars, clothes, IT equipment, household goods and furnishings), and of residents’ and visitors’ travel to and from the landscape, outside its boundaries.

Accounting for emissions from land use and management is also crucial for National Parks and AONBs. These landscapes are mostly rural, with comparatively small population and large parts of land under various forms of agricultural management, in addition to non-agricultural habitats such as woodlands, wildflower meadows, heathlands and peatlands. Land-based emissions originate

One feature of consumption-based reporting is that it does not include emissions from industry (except where an industry’s goods and services are consumed by residents and visitors). Therefore, for perspective, this report also includes a simple estimate of emissions related to industries within the National Park or AONB, including their supply chains. It is important to note that there is some inevitable overlap between industry-related emissions and residents’ and visitors’ emissions, for example when people buy from local businesses within the area. Likewise, there is an overlap between emissions from agriculture as an industry sector and land-based emission within each landscape. Figure 1 illustrates the relationship between the main components of our central assessment and the industry emissions.

This report also includes a scenario for Paris-aligned greenhouse gas emission targets across six key areas. These areas were selected for the original Lake District National Park assessment, and have been chosen in order to find a “best fit” between competing desires: to cover everything of significance within the influence of local policymakers, to keep the boundary simple to describe, to avoid double-counting, and to make use of any data readily available for tracking progress. As a result, the scope for the target areas is slightly different from that of the overall emissions assessment. The six target areas are:

Energy-only emissions by residents, visitors and industry
Food and drink consumed by residents and visitors
Other goods purchased by residents and visitors
Visitor travel to and from the National Park or AONB
Land use non-CO2 component (including emissions from livestock and fertilisers)
Land use CO2 component

Limitations and uncertainties

Due to the complexity of supply chains and the limitations of available data, consumption-based emissions estimates always contain a considerable degree of uncertainty. However, given current constraints on data availability, these estimates are sufficiently robust to provide an evidence basis for carbon management and target setting. The estimate of industry-related emissions is particularly crude, being based on comparatively simple revenue data and generic UK-wide emission factors.

Results

	Cairngorms National Park (See Figure 2 — Figure 5)
Annual emissions from residents	277,145 tCO2e (14.4 tCO2e per person per year)
Annual emissions from visitors while in the National Park	89,788 tCO2e (20.8 kgCO2e per visitor-day)
Annual emissions from visitors travelling to/from the National Park	232,591 tCO2e (112.5 kgCO2e per visit)
Annual industry emissions	64,853 tCO2e

Key highlights

The Cairngorms encompasses the largest area of all the National Parks but has the fifth-lowest resident population. The Cairngorms residents’ consumption is roughly 11% above the UK average (excl. public services), which is slightly lower than the average across all National Parks. The consumption data shows that the residents’ health expenditure is nearly 36% higher than the UK average, consistent with the National Park having a disproportionately high share of the older population.

In a given year, the footprint of the residents of the Cairngorms National Park is estimated to be around 17% higher than the UK average. Several fossil fuel-based sources of greenhouse gas emissions are particularly high. The residents’ emissions from flying and other forms of transport (excl. driving) are estimated to be around 29% higher than for an average UK resident. Driving emissions are around 34% above the UK average. The Cairngorms household electricity footprint is nearly 58% higher than the UK average. Household fuel emissions (excluding vehicle fuel) are just under 11% above those of an average UK resident, although this estimate has high uncertainty since multiple properties are off the gas grid in the National Park, and because there is insufficient data for residual fuel use (oil, coal, biomass). It must be noted that our estimates for emissions from household fuel and electricity use do not include renewable energy solutions such as solar panels

and heat pumps, nor do they factor in the uptake of electric vehicles. As of 2019, the share of these technologies across households was comparatively low and no suitable data with sufficient geographical detail was available.

The Cairngorms National Park has one of the highest shares of visitors staying overnight among all landscapes on the programme (just under 50%). Average duration of stay for overnight visitors is around 3.2 days which is on the lower side. Estimated average mileage travelled on land to get to the Cairngorms the highest among all National Parks and AONBs analysed (around 280 miles) and is dominated by cars. Around 27% visitors are thought to come from overseas, also the highest among all the landscapes on the programme. The visitors’ footprint while travelling to and from the National Park is dominated by vehicle fuel (55%), followed by flying (26%). The footprint of travelling to and from the Park is over 2.5 times higher than while in the Park. The total footprint of all visitors (both in the Park and while travelling to and from) is slightly higher than that of the residents.

The industry footprint of the Cairngorms National Park is dominated by agriculture and forestry (30%), and accommodation and food services (16%). Farming within the National Park is predominantly sheep and cattle production. A fundamental difficulty with estimating industry footprint is that locations where companies are registered and where the required business data is available do not always match with the locations of business activities and emissions. Another challenge is the insufficient number of sectors reported in the business data that matches closely to the boundary of a protected landscape, which forces us to apply generic UK-wide emissions factors.

The Cairngorms National Park is estimated to have a sizeable traffic footprint from the major A roads (A9, A86, A889 and A95), which amounts to nearly 60% compared to the total footprint of the residents. Through-traffic is estimated to account for over 99% of the emissions from the major A roads.

Targets scenario

A minimum Paris-aligned target trajectory has been constructed for each of the six elements of the targets, as illustrated in Figure 6. When combined, they result in a net zero date of 2024 for the Cairngorms National Park. The rationale behind selecting the six emissions categories and excluding other sources of emissions is provided in Section 6, together with an alternative pathway associated with the full consumption-based footprint. We note that the net zero date reflects the unique characteristics of the landscape, including the land use types and their respective areas, the number of residents and visitors and their consumption patterns, and the level and type of industrial activity. It also assumes the recommended decarbonisation and carbon sequestration efforts, including land use change, ratchet up to the required levels immediately in the base year of the assessment. In reality, the high levels of ambition for different sectors explored in this report are likely going take several years to achieve, given that post-COVID emissions have largely rebounded, and that decarbonisation trends to date have been relatively small in magnitude compared to what we know is required for keeping global warming below the safer 1.5°C limit from the Paris Agreement. These factors are expected to push the projected net zero year back by several years. The net zero date should therefore not be taken in isolation as a level of ambition.

1. Introduction

As the world wakes up to the climate and wider environmental emergency, rapid reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and sustainable land management are becoming increasingly central to the local, national and international policy agendas. In 2019, the UK strengthened its production-based targets, setting itself a legally binding target of net zero by 2050. This prompted the family of UK National Park Authorities and several Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONBs) to seek assessment of their greenhouse gas emissions collectively. The ambition of these protected landscapes was to go beyond the UK Government’s production-based targets and identify the full consumption-based scale of the greenhouse gas emissions attributable to residents and visitors, including travel to and from the landscape.

This report, for the Cairngorms National Park, is one of a series of methodologically compatible reports produced for each UK National Park, each Welsh AONB, as well as the Cotswolds and Cannock Chase AONBs in England. The baseline year for the assessment is 2019, the most recent pre-COVID year. The report also includes recommendations for Paris-aligned targets on GHG emissions reduction across six key areas, as well as for carbon sequestration through land-based climate mitigation measures. Together with the estimated 2019 GHG baseline, achieving these targets would mean the Cairngorms reaching consumption-based net zero emissions by 2024, subject to the targets being fulfilled and to the considerable uncertainties remaining in the data.

Together, the UK’s 15 National Parks and 46 AONBs are home to over 1.5 million residents, attract approximately 250 million visitors per year, account for around 18% of the UK’s land area, and contain significant amounts of peat. If they can become exemplars of low-carbon transition and environment-conscious land management, their national and international profiles could give them a level of influence that far outweighs the scale of their own emissions. The exciting and creative challenge for each protected landscape is to find a way to cut emissions in line with current science, and be leaders in land stewardship while simultaneously creating better places for people to live, work and visit.

Almost every action connected with people living, working and spending time in the protected landscapes gives rise to greenhouse gas emissions, which lie within the influence and therefore management responsibilities of the National Park Authorities or Local Authorities for the AONB. While the need to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is the single greatest challenge in responding to the climate emergency, for the protected landscapes in particular, land management is also a critical element of dealing with both the climate and biodiversity crises.

The unique characteristics of each protected landscape give rise to different priorities and opportunities for cutting greenhouse gas emissions and for sustainable land management. For example, the ratio of visitors to residents varies greatly. Some National Parks and AONBs have large industrial or military sites within their boundaries. To varying degrees, each landscape is traversed by major roads that carry considerable volumes of traffic (not necessarily stopping in the area). All these factors affect the economic makeup of each landscape’s geography, and have strong implications for the associated GHG footprint and decarbonisation efforts. In terms of land management challenges and opportunities, the protected landscape vary greatly in their levels of peatland and woodland coverage, in their amount and types of agricultural land, and in the population densities of residents and visitors.

The main body of this report is designed for a broad audience, including some who may be less familiar with carbon analysis, but who have an active interest in the findings. This includes National Park and AONB board members, local businesses, partner organisations, and members of the general public who wish to participate in the transition to a low-carbon and sustainable economy. A technical appendix has been produced for those wishing to consult more methodological detail.

2. Policy drivers

2.1. Climate change policy

While the world has had to focus on dealing with the global pandemic since January 2020, climate change has nevertheless remained high on the international agenda. This section summarises key drivers for change which the National Park may wish to respond to in delivering its statutory duties.

Climate change driven by anthropogenic GHG emissions, plus the wider ecological crisis, are some of the biggest challenges facing humanity today, and a joined-up response to tackling them is likely to improve both situations. A 2018 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) outlined the need to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 45% (from 2010 levels) by 2030, and achieve net zero emissions by 2050¹. It states that these reductions are necessary in order to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. This is the more ambitious target of the Paris Agreement by the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); it is also understood to be a “safer” warming limit both for societies and ecosystems globally. In 2019, the UK Government agreed to a legally binding target of net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Subsequently, the IPCC published its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) in stages, with the final volume released in March 2022. Compiled by the world’s leading scientists, this report provides a comprehensive update on the latest scientific learnings about climate change, and is intended to serve as a resource for global climate negotiations, national policies and business planning.

The first part of the AR6, entitled “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis”, was released ahead of the 26^th UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP26) hosted in Glasgow in November 2021². Notably, it affirms that the increase of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide in the Earth’s atmosphere through the industrial era, i.e. since the late 19^th century, is the result of human activities. What is clear in the report is that our chance of limiting the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels now appears small. Keeping warming below the “safer” 1.5°C limit will likely require the most ambitious actions – i.e. those at the top end of known technical feasibility – to reduce emissions and also upscale efforts on carbon sequestration.

The Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) is the lead for reporting on GHG emissions in line with the UNFCCC requirements in the UK, including Scotland and Wales. An

¹ IPCC (2018) Special Report: “Global Warming of 1.5°C Summary for Policymakers.” https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/spm/.

² IPCC (2021) Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group- i/.

independent body, the UK Climate Change Committee, advises the whole of the UK, including devolved administrations, on emissions targets and progress. The Sixth Carbon Budget (2020) recommends that the UK set a budget to require a 78% reduction in UK greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 relative to 1990, which is a 63% reduction from 2019 levels³. Further detail relating to this is provided in Section 2.4 outlining associated real-world change towards decarbonisation.

The Scottish Government published its Update to the Climate Change Plan 2018 – 2032: “Securing a Green Recovery on a Path to Net Zero” in December 2020. The document sets out the new ambitious targets to end Scotland’s contribution to climate change by 2045 (net zero), and a commitment to reduce emissions by 75% by 2030 (compared with 1990). Recognising the role that both public and private investment must play in delivering the transition to net zero emissions, the Scottish Government launched the first tranche of its £2 billion Low Carbon Fund4.

Ahead of COP26, in October 2021, the UK Government published its Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greeners. This outlines the Government’s strategy to reduce emissions across the economy, including power, fuel supply and hydrogen, industry, heat and buildings, transport, waste, and greenhouse gas removals. It also considers supporting the wider transition across the economy.

COP26 concluded with the agreement of the Glasgow Climate Pact, with 153 countries putting forward new 2030 emissions targets (“Nationally Determined Contributions”, NDCs). The NDCs pledged at COP26 are estimated to represent a trajectory towards a temperature rise of 2.4°C (relative to pre-industrial levels) by the end of the century, whereas the existing Net Zero pledges, if fully implemented, would limit global warming to 1.8°C.7

Prior to COP26 closing on the 13^th of November, the UK’s Environment Act 2021 received Royal Assent, becoming law on the 9^th of November 2021 as an Act of Parliament. The broad aims of the UK Environment Act are to improve air and water quality, protect wildlife, increase recycling and reduce plastic waste. The Act also provides the means to set targets for particulate matter (affecting the quality of ambient air) and species abundance. More importantly, it sets environmental principles which the National Park Authorities or Local Authorities for AONBs will need to be familiar with as they fulfil their statutory planning authority obligations, namely:

The principle that environmental protection should be integrated into policymaking,
The principle of preventative action to avert environmental damage,
The precautionary principle, insofar as it relates to the environment,
The principle that environmental damage should, as a priority, be rectified at source,
The “polluter pays” principle.

³ Climate Change Committee (2020): “The Sixth Carbon Budget: The UK’s Path to Net Zero,” p. 13 https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/The-Sixth-Carbon-Budget-The-UKs-path-to-Net-Zero.pdf.

⁴ Scottish Government (2020) Securing a green recovery on a path to net zero: climate change plan 2018 – 2032 — update p.1

⁵ HM Government (2021), “Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener” https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/net-zero- strategy.

⁶ COP26, “The Glasgow Climate Pact,” p.8 https://ukcop26.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/COP26-Presidency-Outcomes-The- Climate-Pact.pdf.

⁷ https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/.

2.2. Health impacts of air pollution

In addition to the impact of climate change on the environment, greenhouse gas emissions also have an impact on human health and well-being. It is estimated that between 28,000 and 36,000 UK deaths each year are attributable to air pollution. Poor air quality can have a disproportionate impact on the health and well-being of children, older people and other vulnerable individuals. The NHS has identified that more than 2,000 GP practices and 200 hospitals are in localities affected by toxic air. In the UK, 5.4 million people are currently receiving treatment for asthma: 1.1 million children (1 in 11) and 4.3 million adults (1 in 12). Every day, three families are devastated by the death of a loved one due to an asthma attack, and tragically, two thirds of these deaths are preventable (Asthma UK, 2020).

Almost 16% of preventable deaths in Scotland, compared to 30% in England, due to non- communicable diseases can be specifically attributed to air pollution (NHS Plan, 2019). While cities in Scotland have lower levels of particulate pollution than many in England, dangerous levels are still reached⁹.

⁸ https://www.hps.scot.nhs.uk/web-resources-container/air-pollution-and-health-briefing-note-mortality-associated- with-exposure-to-fine-particulate-matter-pm25-attributable-mortality-in-scotland/

⁹ Lee, D., Robertson, C., Ramsay, C., Gillespie, C. and Napier, G., 2019. Estimating the health impact of air pollution in Scotland, and the resulting benefits of reducing concentrations in city centres. Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 29, pp.85 – 96.

2.3. Climate-driven impacts in the UK

The impact of climate change on our natural world is evidenced by higher temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, changes in ecosystems, sea level rise, increasing frequency and intensity of storm surges, retreating glaciers, and melting sea ice and ice sheets. In the UK we are seeing significant changes in the winter and summer rainfall patterns. The UK Met Office’s latest report states that “Winters in the UK, for the most recent decade (2009−2018), have been on average 5% wetter than 1981 – 2010 and 12% wetter than 1961−1990”, and that “Summers in the UK have also been wetter, by 11% and 13% respectively”10. Total rainfall from extremely wet days increased by around 17% in the decade 2008 – 2017 for the UK as a whole. However, the changes are most marked for Scotland, and not significant for most of southern and eastern England. In addition to increasing precipitation volumes, climate change has already made it 12 – 25% more likely that the UK will again experience a summer as hot as 2018, which is projected to become 50% more likely with future warming.

In terms of human responses to flooding, a recent report by Natural England also suggests that environmental inequality is greater within deprived communities, which experience the largest negative climate impacts, e.g. flood risk, air pollution, poor-quality river water and waste hazards. Research has shown that there are significant mental health impacts associated with flooding, including a 20.1% chance of probable depression within 12 months, 28.3% probable anxiety and 32.6% probable PTSD for those individuals who directly experience being flooded (based on the cost per household over a 2‑year period, ranging from £3,144 to £6,980 dependent on flood depth)11.

¹⁰ Met Office (2015), “UK Climate Projections: Headline Findings”, July 2021, version 3 р. 6 – 7 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18 headline findings v3.pdf

¹¹ Priest, S., Viavattene, C., and Cotton, J. (2019) Environment Agency presentation: “New economic costs for the mental health impacts of flooding.”

2.4. Real world action and behaviour change

In addition, climate-driven changes in rainfall patterns and temperatures create significant adaptation challenges for species that depend on their local environmental conditions and habitats, posing an even greater risk to future biodiversity and food security.

The Sixth Carbon budget, together with sector reports, has responded to these policy drivers with high-level proposals that necessitate real-world planning, action and behaviour change. Key highlights from the report are listed below:

By the early 2030s, all new cars and vans, and all domestic and non-domestic replacement boilers are low-carbon – largely electric.
By 2040 all new trucks are low-carbon.
UK industry shifts to using renewable electricity or hydrogen instead of fossil fuels.
UK industry captures its remaining carbon emissions and stores them safely (and permanently).
By 2035 the UK’s electricity production is zero carbon.
Low-carbon hydrogen is scaled up as a fuel for shipping, transport and industry, and for some buildings it replaces natural gas for heating (demand for natural gas is set to double/treble by 2050).
UK wastes fewer resources and reduces its reliance on high-carbon goods.
UK has a national programme to improve insulation of existing buildings12.
Fewer miles travelled by car and air.
Diets change, reducing consumption of high-carbon meat and dairy products13 by 20% by 2030.
Agriculture and the use of farmland are transformed, while maintaining the same levels of food per head produced today.
By 2035, 460,000 hectares of new mixed woodland are planted to remove CO

221125CNPABdPaper5AA_Annex1_CNPGHGAssessmentReport

SMALL WORLD CONSULTING

A greenhouse gas emissions assessment and target scenario for the Cairngorms National Park

A report by Small World Consulting Ltd

Contents

Executive summary

Background

This report

Limitations and uncertainties

Results

Key highlights

Targets scenario

1. Introduction

2. Policy drivers

2.1. Climate change policy

2.2. Health impacts of air pollution

2.3. Climate-driven impacts in the UK

2.4. Real world action and behaviour change

221125CNPABdPaper5AA_Annex1_CNPGHGAssessmentReport

SMALL WORLD CONSULTING

A green­house gas emis­sions assess­ment and tar­get scen­ario for the Cairngorms Nation­al Park

A report by Small World Con­sult­ing Ltd

Con­tents

Exec­ut­ive summary

Back­ground

This report

Lim­it­a­tions and uncertainties

Res­ults

Key high­lights

Tar­gets scenario

1. Intro­duc­tion

2. Policy drivers

2.1. Cli­mate change policy

2.2. Health impacts of air pollution

2.3. Cli­mate-driv­en impacts in the UK

2.4. Real world action and beha­viour change

We want your feedback

A greenhouse gas emissions assessment and target scenario for the Cairngorms National Park

A report by Small World Consulting Ltd

Contents

Executive summary

Background

Limitations and uncertainties

Results

Key highlights

Targets scenario

1. Introduction

2.1. Climate change policy

2.3. Climate-driven impacts in the UK

2.4. Real world action and behaviour change