Snow Cover and Climate Change on Cairngorm Mountain - July 2020
28 July 2020
Executive Summary
This report details research findings on the historical changes in snow depth and number of days of snow on Cairngorm Mountain and how snow may respond under climate change. It is an extension to the report ‘Snow Cover and Climate Change in the Cairngorms National Park: Summary Assessment’ produced by ClimateXChange in 2019.
Key Findings: Observed changes
Key Findings: Future projections
Conclusions:
Warming will continue meaning snow cover and depth is likely to decrease on Cairngorm Mountain from the 2030s. There are likely to be some years with snow comparable to the past but overall there will likely be a decrease.
This document contains a report on the historical changes in snow depth and days of snow on Cairngorm Mountain and how snow may respond to climate change, extending a previous assessment from 2019. The report finds a decrease in observed maximum and average snow depth since the winter of 1983-84, with maximum snow depth decreasing by about 10cm and average by about 3cm. There's also been a decrease in days with specific snow depths, especially for shallower depths, by about 10 days since 1983. Mean monthly snow depth has dropped in January and February, though other months show different trends. Future projections suggest a likely decline in snow cover days per year from the 2030s, with temperatures expected to continue increasing and more heat energy input on ground surfaces. While some years may still have snow comparable to the past, overall, warming will likely decrease snow cover and depth on Cairngorm Mountain.
Please be aware that this summary has been generated using AI.
This document contains a summary assessment of snow cover and climate change in the Cairngorms National Park. Modelling snow cover based on climate projections is challenging, but comparing historic temperature and precipitation data with observed snow cover days helps identify how temperature affects snow days, and model future trends. Initial results indicate a reduction in snow cover as warming continues, with the overall decline projected to accelerate, which has implications for the park's ecology and biodiversity. The projections come with caveats due to incomplete historical data and reliance on high emissions scenarios, though the findings are in line with the UK Meteorological Office and Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) results.
Please be aware that this summary has been generated using AI.