201127AuCtteePaper1Annex1Strategic Risk Register v61 Cttee Version

CAIRNGORMS NATION­AL PARK AUTHOR­ITY STRA­TEGIC RISK REGISTER

Audit and Risk Com­mit­tee Paper — Annex — 27^th Novem­ber 2020

Risk	Ref	Resp	Mit­ig­a­tion	Com­ments	Trend Feb 20	Trend Aug 20	Trend Nov 20
Cross-over risks
Resources: pub­lic sec­tor fin­ances con­strain capa­city to alloc­ate suf­fi­cient resources to deliv­er cor­por­ate plan.	A1	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: Ongo­ing liais­on with Scot­tish Gov­ern­ment high­light­ing achieve­ments of CNPA. Pre­vent­at­ive: Cor­por­ate plan pri­or­it­ised around anti­cip­ated Scot­tish Gov­ern­ment budget alloc­a­tions, tak­ing on Board expect­a­tion of fund­ing con­straints. Remedi­al: Focus resource on diver­si­fic­a­tion of income streams to altern­ate, non-pub­lic income gen­er­a­tion. Remedi­al: Con­tinu­ing to sup­port ​“deliv­ery bod­ies” such as Cairngorms Nature, LAG and OATS in secur­ing inward investment.	Work with Scot­tish Gov­ern­ment has suc­cess­fully secured resources adequate to cov­er Cor­por­ate Plan expect­a­tions into the third year of the cur­rent 4 year Cor­por­ate Plan peri­od. We also con­tin­ue to take for­ward ideas for altern­ate income streams to sup­port future invest­ment, includ­ing col­lect­ive work with all UK Nation­al Parks and now sup­port­ing work on char­it­able activ­it­ies through Cairngorms Trust. Bal­anced budget for 20⁄21. Some risk escal­a­tion recog­nising var­ied COVID19 and EU Exit uncer­tain­ties into 21⁄22 Fin­an­cial year.	⬇️	⬇️	➡️
Resourcing / Staff­ing / Policy: exten­ded impacts of COVID19 to organ­isa­tion impacts core stra­tegic object­ives and requires early stra­tegic plan review.	A23	DC	Remedi­al: sep­ar­ate COVID19 oper­a­tions risk register estab­lished to help identi­fy and mit­ig­ate spe­cif­ic risks.	Man­age­ment of spe­cif­ic COV­ID stra­tegic and oper­a­tion­al risks are set out in the sep­ar­ate risk register doc­u­ment. Evid­ence over last quarter of COV­ID mit­ig­a­tion being effect­ive and focus remain­ing on stra­tegic objectives.	⬇️	➡️	➡️
Gov­ern­ment and Policy: wider nation­al polit­ic­al changes and policy dir­ec­tion force change away from cur­rent objectives.	A2	GM	Pre­vent­at­ive: Invest time in main­tain­ing key gov­ern­ment con­tacts and rela­tion­ships gain­ing notice of poten­tial policy shifts. Work to get full gov­ern­ment back­ing to NPPP which gives longer term strategy commitment.	Spend­ing Review set­tle­ment for 2018⁄20 favour­able for CNPA, there­fore increas­ing con­fid­ence around capa­city to deliv­er exist­ing Cor­por­ate Plan object­ives to 2022 and also on Gov­ern­ment com­mit­ment to CNPA Stra­tegic goals. NPPP and 18⁄22 Cor­por­ate Plan now approved. Mon­it­or­ing ongo­ing poten­tial impacts of EU Exit and COV­ID 19 response budget and policy devel­op­ments, although no escal­a­tion at present. Con­scious of forth­com­ing Scot­tish elec­tions in Spring 21 which may impact over final months of cur­rent cor­por­ate plan period.	⬇️	⬇️	⬇️
Resourcing: UK vote to leave EU dis­rupts pro­ject deliv­ery and fin­an­cing plans and exposes Author­ity to longer term fin­an­cial liab­il­it­ies as a res­ult of loss of EU funds.	A12	DC	Remedi­al: Risk man­age­ment ana­lys­is of spe­cif­ic EU fun­ded activ­it­ies – par­tic­u­larly of Authority’s expos­ure as Account­able Body for LEAD­ER. Instruc­tions issued on timetable for fund­ing com­mit­ments to be covered by CNPA. Remedi­al: Invest man­age­ment time in oppor­tun­it­ies to engage in new fund­ing pro­grammes designed to replace EU fund­ing programmes.	LEAD­ER fund­ing con­tracts tailored to meet expec­ted EU exit timetable. Great­er clar­ity on Scot­tish Gov­ern­ment pos­i­tion now in place. LEAD­ER Pro­gramme deliv­ery now exten­ded until March 21 with some poten­tial for fur­ther exten­sion into 21⁄22 fin­an­cial year. How­ever, con­tin­ued uncer­tainty around basis of EU exit and secur­ity of access to sup­ply lines and data hold­ings now escal­at­ing risk.	⬇️	⬇️	➡️
Resourcing: future com­munity led loc­al devel­op­ment fund­ing cur­rently delivered through LEAD­ER is lost and cre­ates a sig­ni­fic­ant gap in our capa­city to deliv­er against our com­munity devel­op­ment priorities	A12. 2	DC	Remedi­al: pri­or­it­ise engage­ment in con­sulta­tions and events around the future devel­op­ment of struc­tur­al and com­munity fund­ing. Pre­vent­at­ive: con­tin­ue to sup­port work of Cairngorms Trust in attract­ing vol­un­tary dona­tions toward com­munity action — although this is likely to remain at a much smal­ler scale for some time.	Good access to oth­er pro­ject fund­ing for cur­rent stra­tegic deliv­ery peri­od. This stra­tegic risk begins to look bey­ond cur­rent cor­por­ate plan peri­od. Engaged in Rur­al Eco­nomy Stake­hold­er Group with poten­tial for future com­munity led loc­al devel­op­ment fund­ing policy. How­ever, sig­ni­fic­ant uncer­tainty arising from lack of clar­ity from UK Gov­ern­ment on Shared Prosper­ity Fund and dis­tri­bu­tion of funds into devolved administrations.	➡️	➡️	⬆️
Staff­ing: addi­tion­al extern­ally fun­ded pro­jects strains staff work­load capa­city with increased risks of stress and reduced morale.	A9.3	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: Ongo­ing review of Oper­a­tion­al Plan with expli­cit iden­ti­fic­a­tion of pro­jects which can/​must slip to accom­mod­ate suc­cess­ful fund­ing bids. Import­ance of staff man­age­ment and task pri­or­it­isa­tion rein­forced through lead­er­ship meetings.	Ini­tial 2019 staff sur­vey sug­gests some ongo­ing mat­ters on work­load man­age­ment to be addressed while well­being res­ults improv­ing. Recent months of COV­ID response have escal­ated work­loads and some increased risk assessed as consequence.	➡️	➡️	➡️
Resourcing: Role as Lead / Account­able body for major pro­grammes (e.g. LEAD­ER, Land­scape Part­ner­ship) has risk of sig­ni­fic­ant fin­an­cial claw­back should expendit­ure prove to be not eli­gible for fund­ing, while CNPA car­ries respons­ib­il­it­ies as employ­er for pro­gramme staff.	A11. 1	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: Ensure fin­an­cial con­trols in place for pro­gramme man­age­ment include effect­ive eli­gib­il­ity checks. Test pro­cesses with fun­ders if required and also under­take early intern­al audit checks. Work­force man­age­ment plans must incor­por­ate pro­gramme staff con­sid­er­a­tions. Ensure TGLP Man­age­ment and Main­ten­ance con­tracts are all in place to ensure eli­gib­il­ity of invest­ment. Remedi­al: Util­ise intern­al audit resources	Very pos­it­ive move­ment in res­ol­u­tion of mon­it­or­ing and eli­gib­il­ity issues over sum­mer 2018. Enhanced by full accept­ance of all CNPA inter­pret­a­tions dur­ing 2019 with no eli­gib­il­ity issues out­stand­ing at pro­gramme level. Resid­ual risk around dis­pute res­ol­u­tion pro­cesses and uncer­tainty over eli­gib­il­ity judge­ments and inter­pret­a­tion made by SG audit. Some work on TGLP needed to ensure man­age­ment and main­ten­ance agree­ments are all in place.	➡️	➡️	➡️
Resourcing: the end of major pro­gramme invest­ments (Tomin­toul and Glen­liv­et, LEAD­ER) requires sig­ni­fic­ant ongo­ing staff­ing to man­age audit and leg­acy which the Author­ity finds dif­fi­cult to resource.	A11. 2	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: Early iden­ti­fic­a­tion of post-pro­gramme audit and leg­acy man­age­ment and resourcing require­ments and plan­ning for those. Early engage­ment with Cairngorms Trust for LEAD­ER and Land­scape Part­ner­ship Pro­gramme Board to identi­fy and final­ise long term man­age­ment arrangements.	Added by Man­age­ment Team Novem­ber 2019 An intern­al work­ing group has been estab­lished to pro­gress pre­vent­at­ive mit­ig­a­tion actions. This area of work remains under review and risk status level.	➡️	➡️	➡️
Tech­nic­al: Increas­ing ICT depend­ency for effect­ive and effi­cient oper­a­tions is not adequately backed up by ICT sys­tems support.	A17	DC	Remedi­al: New ICT Strategy to be developed to reappraise pos­i­tion on IT depend­en­cies and estab­lish a focus for future digit­al devel­op­ment across the Author­ity. Clear action plan­ning to evolve from final ICT stra­tegic dir­ec­tion once agreed.	Added April 2018 Oper­a­tion­al Man­age­ment Group review. Cyber secur­ity and wider ICT func­tion­al­ity reviews com­pleted. Some ongo­ing delays around IT ele­ments of pro­ject deliv­ery. IT has held up well over COV­ID response although wider infra­struc­ture devel­op­ments are delayed	➡️	➡️	➡️
Tech­nic­al: Cyber secur­ity is inad­equate to address risk of cyber-attack on systems	A18	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: Imple­ment­a­tion of Scot­tish Gov­ern­ment Cyber Secur­ity Action Plans and intern­al audit recom­mend­a­tions on IT secur­ity. Ongo­ing review of sys­tems and pro­ced­ures in tan­dem with LLTNPA.	Added by MT / OMG April 18. Cyber secur­ity plus accred­it­a­tion received. Work under­way to com­plete resid­ual intern­al audit actions. Aware of increased risks high­lighted by nation­al agen­cies dur­ing COV­ID response.	➡️	➡️	➡️
Resourcing: CNPA IT ser­vices are not suf­fi­ciently robust / secure / or well enough spe­cified to sup­port effect­ive and effi­cient ser­vice delivery.	A13	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: We will devel­op and con­sult on the for­ward plans for ICT ser­vice devel­op­ment to ensure these meet ser­vice require­ments. Com­mis­sioned extern­al review of our IT and data man­age­ment pro­cesses to be imple­men­ted to give assurance.	Risk added through staff con­sulta­tion with Staff Con­sultat­ive For­um Sep 2016. Actions imple­men­ted on Cyber Secur­ity. Very high levels of ser­vice avail­ab­il­ity. Risk escal­a­tion noted as a con­sequence of rap­idly evolving ser­vice require­ments as pro­ject deliv­ery evolves and remote work­ing becomes more entrenched.	➡️	➡️	➡️
Repu­ta­tion: the Authority’s repu­ta­tion is impacted by a small num­ber of voci­fer­ous social media opin­ion leaders	A14	GM	Pre­vent­at­ive: Staff and Board train­ing on use of social media to best sup­port organ­isa­tion­al aims in com­mu­nic­a­tions and repu­ta­tion man­age­ment. Ongo­ing deliv­ery of com­mu­nic­a­tions strategy. Remedi­al: Social media pro­file also rep­res­ents an oppor­tun­ity to boost repu­ta­tion. Remedi­al: involve­ment in emer­ging NPUK col­lect­ive com­mu­nic­a­tions strategy and cam­paigns which will pro­duce addi­tion­al high pro­file pos­it­ive repu­ta­tion­al impact.	Imple­ment­a­tion of com­mu­nic­a­tions strategy and wider organ­isa­tion­al deliv­ery, includ­ing pro­mo­tion of recent suc­cesses, effect­ive in main­tain­ing organ­isa­tion­al pro­file. Ongo­ing down­ward trend in risk. How­ever, main­tain on register for time being recog­nising some ongo­ing pres­sures being managed.	⬇️	⬇️	⬇️
Repu­ta­tion: high pro­file incid­ents or one off stor­ies, such as those asso­ci­ated with wild­life crime, moun­tain hares, afford­able hous­ing can have an undue influ­ence on the Authority’s wider reputation.	A15	GM	Remedi­al: Main­tain good bal­ance of tra­di­tion­al and social media releases. Remedi­al: Close part­ner­ship work­ing to seek to bal­ance incid­ent report­ing and appro­pri­ately reflect Authority’s pos­i­tion and work.	Wild­life crime ini­ti­at­ive now launched. Oth­er pos­it­ive media around Snow Roads and Cairngorms as a des­tin­a­tion. This risk dimin­ish­ing in impact as wider bal­an­cing inform­a­tion becomes more widespread.	⬇️	⬇️	⬇️
Resourcing: scale of asset respons­ib­il­it­ies such as for paths, out­door infra­struc­ture is not adequately recog­nised and does not secure adequate for­ward main­ten­ance funding.	A16	DC	Remedi­al: Review of account­ing pro­ced­ures and asset recog­ni­tion policy; review of forth­com­ing account­ing tech­nic­al guid­ance. Ensure full con­sid­er­a­tion is giv­en in budget reviews. Pre­vent­at­ive: Altern­ate fund­ing sources such as vis­it­or giv­ing to be explored more actively.	Added by MT / OMG April 18. Infra­struc­ture main­ten­ance issues exacer­bated by end of exist­ing agree­ment over Spey­side Way Long Dis­tance Route and end of main­ten­ance peri­od for some large scale invest­ments – East Cairngorms Access Pro­ject (ECAP) for example.	➡️	➡️	➡️
Resources / Staff­ing: fail­ure to effect­ively man­age staff­ing num­bers with a view to the long term busi­ness need will reduce the capa­city for the Author­ity to deploy adequate fin­an­cial invest­ment toward pri­or­ity pro­jects in the Nation­al Park.	A19	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: Work­force Man­age­ment Strategy developed and in place. Ana­lys­is of staff­ing con­tract pos­i­tion over three year peri­od com­pleted with actions estab­lished. Review of all vacan­cies as they arise. Con­sider staff man­age­ment schemes available.	Staff con­tract pos­i­tion now estab­lished and sub­ject to ongo­ing mon­it­or­ing through HR, with review at point of any vacan­cies arising. Ongo­ing man­age­ment of staff num­bers under­way with some high­lighted areas now resolved. Budget 20⁄21 shows pos­it­ive pic­ture on staffing.	⬇️	⬇️	➡️
Resources: change in fin­an­cing IT ser­vices and the switch from cap­it­al to rev­en­ue pro­vi­sion places an unman­age­able pres­sure on the Authority’s budget capacity.	A20	DC	Remedi­al: Mon­it­or pat­tern of IT Invest­ment costs as regards the cap­it­al and rev­en­ue split of resourcing require­ments; build impacts into ongo­ing budget delib­er­a­tions with Scot­tish Government.	Added by Audit Com­mit­tee 8 March 2019 fol­low­ing ​“deep dive” IT risk review. 2020⁄21 budget estim­ates give bal­anced pos­i­tion between cap­it­al and rev­en­ue costs.	⬇️	⬇️	⬇️
Repu­ta­tion: the Author­ity is not per­ceived to be appro­pri­ately address­ing the poten­tial for con­flict between 4 stat­utory aims.	A21	GM	Pre­vent­at­ive: Ensure Board policy papers and Plan­ning Com­mit­tee papers are expli­cit in recog­nising stra­tegic policy con­flicts between 4 stat­utory aims and in address­ing the eval­u­ation of the conflict.	Added by Audit Com­mit­tee 8 March 2019 fol­low­ing intern­al audit report on stra­tegic plan­ning pro­cesses. May have to increase pro­file of this mov­ing forward.	➡️	➡️	➡️
Tech­nic­al: Busi­ness Con­tinu­ity Plans (BCP) are inad­equate to deal with sig­ni­fic­ant impacts to nor­mal work­ing arrange­ments and res­ult in ser­vice failure.	A22	DC	Pre­vent­at­ive: Over­haul of BCP developed in 2014 with report­ing on devel­op­ment of plans through Man­age­ment Team and Audit and Risk Com­mit­tee. Test BCP arrange­ments once plan in place and com­mu­nic­ated. Remedi­al: intern­al audit review of COVID19 over winter 20⁄21 will lead into les­sons learned on wider BCP.	Added by Audit Com­mit­tee May 2019 fol­low­ing intern­al audit review of BCP. Some delay in final­isa­tion of BCP doc­u­ment­a­tion itself. How­ever, work on BCP has con­sid­er­ably assisted in roll out of ini­tial and ongo­ing responses to Coronavir­us pan­dem­ic with evid­ence, includ­ing very pos­it­ive staff feed­back, that BCP imple­ment­a­tion has been effective.	➡️	➡️	➡️

Notes:

• Aim­ing to keep stra­tegic risk register to around 12 to 15 high-level stra­tegic risks.
• Cross-cut­ting risks impact poten­tially through­out all priorities.
• Stra­tegic Risks around cor­por­ate pri­or­it­ies focus on risk impacts through­out each of the three themes – hence require a coordin­ated over­view at Dir­ect­or / MT level. Not expect­ing a stra­tegic risk against each spe­cif­ic Cor­por­ate Plan priority.
• More spe­cif­ic risks are expec­ted to be cap­tured in more oper­a­tion­al risk registers – e.g. risk man­age­ment around deliv­ery of office extension.
• Full risk register is the col­lect­ive respons­ib­il­ity of the full MT to man­age; how­ever, each risk is alloc­ated to one spe­cif­ic mem­ber of the team to take lead responsibility.
• Aim through mit­ig­a­tion to reduce Like­li­hood (LL) mul­ti­plied by Impact (IM) risk score to below 10 as accept­able risk value.
• Ref­er­ence key: ​“A” items are risks impact­ing on all aspects of the Cor­por­ate Plan; ​“C” items are Con­ser­va­tion only risks; ​“V” risks relate spe­cific­ally to Vis­it­or Exper­i­ence; ​“L” risks relate to Land Man­age­ment; ​“R” risks relate to Rur­al Devel­op­ment risks.

Key:

• Man­aged risk (green down­ward arrow in greyed-out field): Risk assess­ment that risk is effect­ively man­aged and no longer a stra­tegic risk pos­ing poten­tial to inhib­it achieve­ment of cor­por­ate stra­tegic object­ives. Risk can be removed from risk register.
• Lower­ing risk (green down­ward arrow): Risk impact and / or like­li­hood is declin­ing res­ult­ing in over­all stra­tegic risk assess­ment of mit­ig­a­tion actions effect­ive with ongo­ing mon­it­or­ing of risk envir­on­ment still required.
• Stat­ic risk (amber hori­zont­al arrow): Risk impact and like­li­hood is stable. Over­all stra­tegic risk assess­ment is stable indic­at­ing that stra­tegic risk remains, requir­ing ongo­ing man­age­ment and con­tin­ued imple­ment­a­tion of pro­posed mit­ig­a­tion and controls.
• Increas­ing risk (red upward arrow): Risk impact and / or like­li­hood is increas­ing res­ult­ing in increas­ing risk of achieve­ment of stra­tegic object­ives being inhib­ited. Man­age­ment action, and pos­sibly resource invest­ment, required to address risk envir­on­ment and pos­sibly intro­duce new mit­ig­a­tion action, in order to reduce risk impact and / or likelihood.

Ver­sion Control

• 3 Board Cycle Decem­ber 2019
• 3.0 Board adop­ted ver­sion June 2019 for MT / OMG review
• 3.1 Audit Com­mit­tee review 6 Septem­ber 2019
• 3.2 Man­age­ment Team Novem­ber 2019
• 4 Board Cycle Jan to Jun 2020
• 4.0 Draft fol­low­ing Board con­sid­er­a­tion Decem­ber 2019
• 4.1 To Audit and Risk Com­mit­tee March 2020
• 5 Board Cycle July to Sep 2020
• 5.1 Sep 20 Board meet­ing draft for MT / OMG review
• 5.2 Sep 20 Board meet­ing fol­low­ing MT / OMG edits (WBW)
• 6 Board Cycle Octo­ber 20 to March 21
• 6.1 ARC Novem­ber 20 first draft