Fact Sheet - Economy

NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

Gross Value Added (GVA)

The Nation­al Park’s eco­nomy has been sig­ni­fic­antly affected by the recent Cov­id-19 pan­dem­ic. Estim­ates by Oxford Eco­nom­ics report the CNP’s eco­nomy shrank by 14.8% in 2020, a lar­ger con­trac­tion than Scot­land as a whole (-9.4%) and the UK (-10%).

15 Fore­cast 10 5 0 ‑5 ‑10 ‑15 ‑20 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Nation­al Park Scotland

Unsur­pris­ingly the accom­mod­a­tion and food ser­vices sec­tor has been most affected, estim­ated to have nearly halved in 2020, with oth­er sig­ni­fic­ant reduc­tions in the arts, enter­tain­ment and recre­ation. The out­look is, how­ever, pos­it­ive with the Park expec­ted to return to pre-pan­dem­ic levels in 2022, with GVA growth of 9% in 2021 and 8% in 2022. GVA growth is fore­cast at 1.9% annu­ally between 2021 and 2031, which is 0.1% points above the Scot­tish aver­age. This reflects the unique indus­tri­al struc­ture with strong poten­tial GVA in the tour­ism and real estate related sectors.

Agri­cul­ture Min­ing Man­u­fac­tur­ing Elec­tri­city, gas, steam & air Water sup­ply & sew­er­age Con­struc­tion Whole­sale & retail trade Trans­port­a­tion & stor­age Accom­mod­a­tion & food servs Inform­a­tion & com­mu­nic­a­tion Fin­an­cial & insur­ance activ­it­ies Real estate activ­it­ies Pro­fess., sci­entif­ic & tech­nic­al acts Admin and sup­port ser­vices Pub­lic admin and defence Edu­ca­tion Human health & social work Arts, enter­tain­ment & recre­ation Oth­er ser­vices ‑0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 % annu­al con­tri­bu­tion to GVA growth

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

Employ­ment in the Nation­al Park

Data obtained from Skills Devel­op­ment Scot­land (SDS) in 2021 informes us that : • 8,100 people employed in the Nation­al Park in 2020. • Full- time jobs were most numer­ous with 4,900 people, 60% com­pared to 74% in Scot­land. • Part-time jobs were held by 3,200 people or 40% of those employed.

Across the Nation­al Park a major bar­ri­er to staff recruit­ment, in both sea­son­al and per­man­ent pos­i­tions, con­tin­ues to be the short­age of suit­able afford­able housing.

Pop­u­la­tion by Activ­ity Type

The Nation­al Park has a high­er pro­por­tion of part- time and self-employed people (both around 15%) than the Scot­tish pop­u­la­tion (around 13%).This may reflect the makeup of the main employ­ment sec­tors in the Park (accom­mod­a­tion and food; arts, enter­tain­ment, recre­ation and oth­er; skilled trades), which tend to be ful­filled by part time and self-employed workers.

Full-time Stu­dent Unem­ployed Self-employed Part-time Empoly­ment Full-time Employ­ment 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Edu­ca­tion and Train­ing Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

In the Park the mean adult edu­ca­tion­al score and attain­ment of school leav­ers are above the nation­al aver­ages and sig­ni­fic­antly below nation­al aver­age in terms of adults with no qual­i­fic­a­tions. There is a very low pro­por­tion of young people 16 – 19 year olds not par­ti­cip­at­ing in employ­ment, edu­ca­tion and train­ing (NEET) factors that may be con­trib­ut­ing to this include: • High aver­age educational/​voca­tion­al qual­i­fic­a­tions. • Low unem­ploy­ment rate and high avail­ab­il­ity of employ­ment in par­tic­u­lar in the tour­ism sec­tor. • Out migra­tion of young people

mean adult edu­ca­tion­al score HIGHEST school leav­ers adults (16−64) edu­ca­tion­al with no attain­ment qual­i­fic­a­tions 16 – 19 year olds NEET 2.02 5.66 27% 0.037% 2.00 5.61 27% 0.036% 1.93 5.59 27% 0.033% 1.86 5.53 26% 0.026% 1.84 5.53 23% 0.023% 1.80 5.52 23% 0.022% LOW­EST 1.75 5.46 23% ‑0.008%

• Pub­lic­ally fun­ded schools.
• NEET: Not in Edu­ca­tion, Employ­ment or Training

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Labour Mar­ket Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

The import­ance of cer­tain employ­ment sec­tors var­ies both between the dif­fer­ent indus­tries and between the dif­fer­ent Loc­al Author­ity areas with­in the Nation al Park.

Pro­por­tion of employ­ment by industry from the 2011 Census for the dif­fer­ent Loc­al Author­ity areas in the Park

20% 18% Aber­deen­shire 16% 14% High­land 12% Moray 10% 8% Perth and Kinross 6% 4% 2% 0% Agri­cul­ture, forestry and fish­ing Min­ing, quar­ry­ing and util­it­ies Man­u­fac­tur­ing Con­struc­tion Real estate activ­it­ies Trans­port and stor­age Inform­a­tion and com­mu­nic­a­tion Fin­an­cial and insur­ance activ­it­ies Accom­mod­a­tion and food ser­vices Pub­lic admin­is­tra­tion and defense Pro­fes­sion­al, sci­entif­ic and tech­nic­al Admin­is­trat­ive and sup­port ser­vices Whole­sale and retail trade, motor repairs Edu­ca­tion Health and social work Arts, enter­tain­ment, recre­ation and other

Moray has a dif­fer­ent pro­file to that of the oth­er Loc­al Author­ity areas. The largest dif­fer­ences are seen in the man­u­fac­tur­ing and the accom­mod­a­tion and food ser­vices sec­tors. Man­u­fac­tur­ing is a key sec­tor for Moray, con­trib­ut­ing 18%, com­pared to between 3% and 6% for the oth­er Loc­al Author­ity areas.

In con­trast, accom­mod­a­tion and food ser­vices con­trib­ute far less at 8%, com­pared to between 15% and 18% for the oth­er Loc­al Author­ity areas. This could reflect the reli­ance the oth­er areas in the Park have on tour­ism, which influ­ences the accom­mod­a­tion and food ser­vices sec­tor, where­as Moray has tra­di­tion­ally had a dif­fer­ent eco­nom­ic focus.

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK PEOPLE ECONOMY

Labour Mar­ket in the Nation­al Park

Labour Mar­ket

In the Nation­al Park these were the five largest employ­ing sec­tors in 2020.

Accom­mod­a­tion and Food Service…

Whole­sale and Retail Trade

Arts, Enter­tain­ment and Recreation

Human Health and Social Work

Con­struc­tion

0 400 800 1200 1600

Largest Occu­pa­tions

Cler­ic­al and Ser­vices Elementary…

Sales Occu­pa­tions

Admin­is­trat­ive Occupations

Managers/​Pro­pri­et­ors in…

Caring Per­son­al Ser­vice Occu­pa­tions 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

The work­force shrunk by 2.7% between 2019 – 2020 largely caused by a decrease in the prom­in­ent Accom­mod­a­tion and Food Ser­vice Activ­ity Sec­tor. Over a third of occu­pa­tions (36%) were ​‘high­er level’, 33% were ​‘mid-level’ and 31% were ​‘lower-level’ This is com­pared to 45% ​‘high­er level’ and 35% ​‘lower level’ occu­pa­tions across Scotland.

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Labour Mar­ket Require­ments Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

The labour mar­ket of the Nation­al Park is fore­cast to face some chal­lenges in the imme­di­ate term, with mac­ro­scale events such as Brexit and the COV­ID-19 Pan­dem­ic res­ult­ing in job losses and lim­it­ing eco­nom­ic growth.

The fore­cast for the mid-term (2020 — 2023) sug­gests there could be some job growth (100 people) and oppor­tun­it­ies cre­ated as a res­ult of the need to replace work­ers leav­ing the labour mar­ket due to retire­ment and oth­er reas­ons (800 people).

x900x100 X 800

These are expec­ted to be con­cen­trated in a small num­ber of sec­tors: 30% 20% 20%

Accom­mod­a­tion and Food Ser­vices Whole­sale and retail trade Arts, enter­tain­ment, and recreation

10% 10% 10%

Con­struc­tion Agri­cul­ture, Forestry and Fish­ing Education

The fore­cast for the long-term (2023 — 2030) pre­dict a halt in growth. How­ever there could be an ongo­ing require­ment for skilled people to fill oppor­tun­it­ies cre­ated by people leav­ing the labour mar­ket. This fea­ture of the labour mar­ket, known as the replace­ment require­ment, is a symp­tom of demo­graph­ic change.

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Replace­ment Require­ment Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

It is fore­cast that there will be a require­ment of 1,800 people to fill job open­ings between 2023 and 2030. As the fore­cast expan­sion demand is zero, all 1,800 poten­tial job open­ings are fore­cast to be a res­ult of the replace­ment demand.

Labour Mar­ket Require­ments 2020 — 2030 1600

1200

800

400

0 2020 – 2023 2023 – 2030 Replace­ment jobs Expan­sion of labour market

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Unem­ploy­ment Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

Unem­ploy­ment levels with­in the Nation­al Park are rel­at­ively low, with the 2011 Census find­ing that only around 3% of the pop­u­la­tion aged 16 – 74 were unem­ployed, com­pared to around 5% for Scot­land. Around 0.3% had nev­er worked com­pared to around 1% for Scot- land, with around 1% being long term unem­ployed com­pared to around 2% for Scotland.

There is a vari­ation between the Loc­al Author­ity areas, with Moray exper­i­en­cing high­er rates of unem­ploy­ment than Scot­land and the oth­er Loc­al Author­ity areas with­in the Park, and Perth and Kinross exper­i­en­cing muchlower rates.

The nature of employ­ment with­in the Park is how­ever extremely sea­son­al, with Job Seekers Allow­ance (JSA) claimants peak­ing in the winter months (see graph below). Unem­ploy­ment is at its low­est in July, which coin­cides with Scot­tish school and pub­lic hol­i­days and key tour­ism months.

Num­ber of Job Seekers Allow­ance Claimants by Loc­al Author­ity Area

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Octo­ber 2004 April 2005 Octo­ber 2005 April 2006 Octo­ber 2006 April 2007 Octo­ber 2007 April 2008 Octo­ber 2008 April 2009 Octo­ber 2009 April 2010 Octo­ber 2010 April 2011 Octo­ber 2011 April 2012 Octo­ber 2012 April 2013 Octo­ber 2013 Aber­deen­shire High­land Moray Perth & Kinross Nation­al Park April 2014 Octo­ber 2014 April 2015 Octo­ber 2015 April 2016 Octo­ber 2016 April 2017 Octo­ber 2017 April 2018 Octo­ber 2018 April 2019 Octo­ber 2019

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Income Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

The CNP is out per­form­ing ⁴⁄₅ of the adjoin­ing loc­al author­it­ies in terms of income depriva­tion and almost half the nation­al aver­age (bot­tom riight image). The latest data reports that there are 1,215 people in the park receiv­ing income related bene­fits. There is dis­par­ity between the low­est areas of recip­i­ents namely the area sur­round­ing Bal­later: 2.9% and the highest, Aviemore Centre East: 12.7%.

The major­ity of the areas in the Nation­al Park are above the nation­al aver­age for medi­an weekly income as can be seen by the blue map below.

medi­an house­hold income/​wk income depriva­tion* £716 12.3% £661 10.0% £651 9.9% £500 €550 £600 £650 £700 £750 £800

£602 8.8% £594 8.1% £592 6.6% £572 6.4% Income fig­ures are for whole author­ity areas.

• Depriva­tion rates based on receipt of income related bene­fits as % of population.

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NPPP 2022 Factsheet: PEOPLE ECO­NOMY Fur­ther Inform­a­tion Cairngorms NATION­AL PARK

Tour­ism and Busi­ness in the Cairngorms Nation­al Park: https://​cairngorms​.co​.uk/​w​o​r​k​i​n​g​-​t​o​g​e​t​h​e​r​/​t​o​u​r​i​s​m​-​b​u​s​i​ness/

Cairngorms Eco­nom­ic Action Plan: https://​cairngorms​.co​.uk/​w​o​r​k​i​n​g​-​t​o​g​e​t​h​e​r​/​a​u​t​h​o​r​i​t​y​/​n​a​t​i​o​n​a​l​-​p​a​r​k​-​s​t​r​a​t​e​g​i​e​s​/​e​c​o​n​o​m​i​c-ac- tion-plan/

Cairngorms Tour­ism Action Plan: https://​cairngorms​.co​.uk/​w​p​-​c​o​n​t​e​n​t​/​u​p​l​o​a​d​s​/​2​0​1​7​/​1​2​/​1​7​1​1​2​2​T​o​u​r​i​s​m​A​c​t​i​o​n​P​l​a​n.pdf

Cairngorms Green Recov­ery Fund: https://​cairngorms​.co​.uk/​c​a​r​i​n​g​-​f​u​t​u​r​e​/​f​u​n​d​i​n​g​/​c​a​i​r​n​g​o​r​m​s​-​g​r​e​e​n​-​r​e​c​o​v​e​r​y​-​fund/

Cairngorms Trust: https://​cairngorms​.co​.uk/​c​a​r​i​n​g​-​f​u​t​u​r​e​/​f​u​n​d​i​n​g​/​c​a​i​r​n​g​o​r​m​s​-​t​rust/

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