Paper 2 Annex 2 C2030 Programme Risk Register

Pro­ject: C2030 Pro­gramme Pro­ject Man­ager: Dav­id Clyne Job title: Head of Cairngorms 2030 Date of last risk review: 22-Feb-24 Cairngorms 2030: Pro­gramme risk Peri­od: Q2 2026

Audit and Risk Com­mit­tee Paper 2 Annex 2 02 Octo­ber 2026

Risk Mat­rix Key

• Rare (Low) 1
• Unlikely (Low) 2
• Pos­sible 3
• Likely (High) 4
• Almost Cer­tain (High) 5

Risk ID No.	Date	Risk Descrip­tion	Impact Descrip­tion	Impact Level	Prob­ab­il­ity Level	Pri­or­ity Level	Trend	Mit­ig­a­tion Strategy	Q1 25	Q2 25	Q3 25	Q4 25	Q1 26	Q2 26 RAG Status	Status	Own­er	Date of last assess­ment	Reas­sess­ment Date	For­ward look to Q3 26
7	14/12/2023	Deliv­ery of Trans­port Scot­land fun­ded pro­jects match fund­ing for the pro­gramme is not secured at the val­ues or with­in the timelines required to achieve pro­ject objectives.	Trans­port Scot­land fund­ing for 2026⁄27 remains uncon­firmed and there is no con­firmed date for noti­fic­a­tion des­pite con­tin­ued engage­ment, includ­ing at Chief Exec­ut­ive level. The uncer­tainty con­tin­ues to affect deliv­ery sequen­cing, part­ner con­fid­ence and the abil­ity to move sev­er­al infra­struc­ture pro­jects from design into construction.	5	3	15	No change	Pos­it­ive meet­ing held with TS. Costs resub­mit­ted for assess­ment with decision likely in Septem­ber 2026. Pro­ject teams are pro­gress­ing design, approvals and pre­par­at­ory activ­ity wherever pos­sible while the fund­ing decision remains outstanding.	Amber	Red	Amber	Amber	Amber	Amber	OPEN	Dav­id Clyne	02/09/2026	13/10/2026	Pro­gramme will have con­firmed pos­i­tion on TS fund­ing. Team ready for deliv­ery at late notice and con­tract­or in place to start works. Trans­port pro­ject pri­or­it­ies review in pro­gress to respond to fund­ing pos­i­tion. Latest update from Trans­port Scot­land pos­it­ive — revised costs sub­mit­ted. Aim to return RAG status to green by year end. Future risk con­fid­ence remains at amber giv­en uncer­tain­ties around trans­port fund­ing ref­er­enced above and oth­er part­ner fund­ing streams which remain to be finalised.
1	14/12/2023	Total pro­gramme risk profile	Poten­tial loss of match fund­ing or part­ner support.	5	3	15	No change	Pro­gramme level risk remains Green. The prin­cip­al areas requir­ing act­ive man­age­ment are Trans­port Scot­land fund­ing uncer­tainty and the new Amber pos­i­tion for Nature Recov­ery and Peat­land Restoration.	Amber	Amber	Green	Green	Amber	Amber	OPEN	Dav­id Clyne	02/09/2026	13/10/2026	Aim to return RAG status to green by year end. Match fund­ing updates or deliv­ery secured from pub­lic sec­tor partners.
2	14/12/2023	Future fund­ing profile	Insuf­fi­cient match fund­ing to meet agreed commitments.	5	3	15	No change	Future risk remains Amber because Trans­port Scot­land fund­ing and sev­er­al part­ner match fund­ing streams remain unre­solved. The pro­gramme cash flow will be updated fol­low­ing con­firm­a­tion of trans­port and land­scape fund­ing decisions.	Amber	Amber	Green	Green	Amber	Amber	OPEN	Dav­id Clyne	02/09/2026	13/10/2026	Revised cost and match fund­ing plan pre­pared. Aim to return RAG status to green by year end.
3	14/12/2023	Fin­ance: impact on Park Author­ity budget management	Park Author­ity spend agreed at £450k pa.	4	1	4	Improv­ing	No sig­ni­fic­ant impact on the Park Author­ity budget is cur­rently iden­ti­fied. Poten­tial implic­a­tions remain with­in the total agreed pro­gramme budget and will be man­aged through re-pro­fil­ing and form­al change con­trol where required.	Green	Green	Green	Green	Green	Green	OPEN	Dav­id Clyne	02/09/2026	13/10/2026	Over­all budget man­age­ment impacts remain with­in the total agreed budget. Revised cost and match fund­ing plan prepared.
4	14/12/2023	Pro­cure­ment standards	All con­tracts must meet PCS stand­ards. Pos­sible leg­al chal­lenge if reg­u­la­tions not met.	3	2	6	Improv­ing	Pro­cure­ment activ­ity remains in place and is being man­aged through the agreed pro­gramme processes.	Green	Green	Green	Green	Green	Green	OPEN	Dav­id Clyne	02/09/2026	13/10/2026	Pro­cure­ment sched­ule for Q3 2026 in place.
5	14/12/2023	Staff­ing	Insuf­fi­cient staff in post impacts pro­ject deliv­ery, times­cales and outcomes.	4	2	8	Improv­ing	No pro­gramme wide staff­ing risk is cur­rently iden­ti­fied, although com­mu­nic­a­tions capa­city will require act­ive man­age­ment dur­ing wild­fire response and planned staff changes in Q3 and Q4.	Amber	Green	Green	Green	Green	Green	OPEN	Dav­id Clyne	02/09/2026	13/10/2026	No staff resource issues.
6	15/12/2023	Nature Recov­ery Peat­land pro­jects deliv­ery delays	Delays con­firm­ing pro­jects and wild­fire impacts on Peat­land delivery.	4	3	12	Deteri­or­at­ing	Nature Recov­ery has moved from Green to Amber because wood­land pro­jects have not yet been con­firmed. The main issue is the gap between avail­able pub­lic fund­ing and the actu­al cost of tech­nic­ally chal­len­ging wood­land schemes, cre­at­ing fin­an­cial liab­il­ity for landown­ers. Con­firmed pro­jects, costs and approv­al expec­ted end Septem­ber 2026 when RAG status moves back to green. Peat­land Res­tor­a­tion has been assessed as Amber due to oper­a­tion­al risks arising from the July wild­fire and asso­ci­ated deliv­ery uncer­tainty. The pro­ject remains on track to achieve its annu­al out­puts through act­ive con­tin­gency plan­ning and iden­ti­fic­a­tion of sub­sti­tute sites where required.						Amber	OPEN	Dav­id Clyne	02/09/2026	13/10/2026	Wood­land pro­jects now approved in prin­ciple by NLHF. Dis­cus­sions with pro­ject teams give con­fid­ence that work is on track to address all issues and return pro­jects to green by end September.